Russia reinstated

By Sachin Jose

    Ever since the tensions of the Cold War thawed in the 1990s, Russia seemed to be a Steppe Mammoth, hibernating in the Siberian permafrost. Unaware of the power it possessed, the former superpower remained subservient to the unipolar West.

    Though shattered with the fall of the Iron Curtain, Russia is still the largest country in the world by area and the eighth largest economy. It is one of the five recognised nuclear weapons states and also inherited the second largest stockpile of nuclear warheads from its predecessor Soviet Union, amounting to 1,800 behind 2,150 of USA.

    With its move against Ukraine, Russia has proved that it is no longer a regional hegemony, but a potential superpower recuperating from its ashes. This phenomenon started in 2008, when Russia annexed Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia.

    Historically, these were parts of Russia as were Crimea and Sevastopol, both of which are being disputed by the West. The erstwhile Russian Empire fought the Ottoman Turks for the possession of the Crimean Peninsula and its bastion Sevastopol as early as in 1853. 

    Russians realise that it is was a folly on the part of Soviet leader Nikita Krushchev to transfer the peninsula to Ukraine as a friendly gesture in 1954.  All Russia did is take back something that belonged to it once. It was a battle unstained by blood unlike the gory wars of the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation), which ravaged Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.

   Moscow kept quiet when NATO stretched its arms towards Eastern Europe consisting of the Baltic (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), Balkan (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia) and Slavic (Belarus, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) states, until it reached Ukraine - the Russian threshold.

    Russian President Vladmir Putin intends to create a Russosphere where the Kremlin believes to have its sphere of influence. These include the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) that were part of the Soviet Union.

   The recent sanctions by the West on Russia is seen as a boomerang assault, as much of Europe is dependent on Russian oil and natural gas. Expulsion from the G8 will bring Russia closer to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). 

   Moscow focuses on the Eurasian Economic Community consisting of major CIS nations, to counterbalance the economic influence of the European Union, while the Shanghai Corporation Organisation consisting China and Central Asia is a strategic deterrent to NATO threats.

   Kremlin can win allies globally by exploiting its energy resources rather than military might. It has the geopolitical advantage of being an indispensable part of Eurasia as well as the Asia-Pacific. Russia needs to pioneer in creating a new world order with multipolar dimensions.

Revival of the Nehruvian Asian Axis

By Sachin Jose

     It was one of the Nehruvian dreams to create an Asian Axis after Second World War with India and China at its core. The Panchsheel principles were developed in the light of this vision. But it fell into disrepair owing to the 1962 Sino-Indian war.

    However, the two countries had peacefully co-existed as great civilisations for several millennia without having taken any belligerent move against each other. They were one of the leading centres of ancient culture and technology. Also, India and China were part of the ancient Silk Road and the colonial Spice Route.

    Likewise in the modern era, the two giants should hold hands together to retrieve the "lost riches of the East," which was plundered by colonial greed. Instead of considering each other as first-rate rivals, leading to border skirmishes and incursions, they must increase bilateral ties.

     A series of high-level meetings in the past five years has shown that China is keen to make an ally of India. But both countries need to refrain from provoking each other. China has to lessen their involvement in South Asia and the Indian Ocean littoral countries while India is obliged to refrain from interfering in the Pacific with Japan, the USA and the ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations).

     They have conducted strategic exercises together as part of counter-terrorism and maritime security. China must accept India’s hegemony in the Indian Ocean and the surrounding Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, while India must leave the South China Sea and the western half of Pacific under the Chinese dominion.

      Both the nations have been working together in several organisations like G20 and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Last year, the World Bank forecasted that the Sino-Indian bilateral trade would hit $100 billion (Rs 61,850 crore) by 2015 from $ 66.4 billion (Rs 41,068 crore) recorded in 2012.

     The two fast-growing economies need separate forums for themselves within the BRICS or G20. Also, there must be sharing of knowledge and culture so as to strengthen ties between people of both nations.

     Just because they are energy-hungry, they must not eat up each other. There are examples of historical enemies that have turned up as strong allies. Britain, France and Germany had fought each other for centuries, but European Union is now one of the peaceful regions in the world, which won them Nobel Peace Prize last year.

     Similarly, the two potential superpowers can mould Asia into a peaceful continent, which has the highest number of nuclear powers and thereby restore the Oriental hegemony. The governments of both nations must realize this fact so that their citizens shall once again chant the once popular mantra, “Hindi-Chini, bhai-bhai” – Indians and Chinese are brothers.